With every federal election in Canada, the housing market in Ontario—especially in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)—seems to hold its breath. If you’ve been wondering whether election results can shake the real estate world, you’re not alone. It’s a question I recently dove into, analyzing the last 10 Canadian federal elections to find out what really happened to home prices and sales in the aftermath.
What I found might surprise you.
I stripped away all the noise—no party politics, no global conflicts, no pandemic disruptions. Just a clean look at how the housing market in Ontario responded post-election.
Here’s what the data shows:
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2021 – The market cooled off due to rising interest rates, ultimately seeing a 17% decline in prices by 2023.
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2019 – A modest boost in buyer activity led to a 4% increase in prices.
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2015 – We witnessed record-breaking sales with continued price appreciation.
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2011 – A stable climb resumed with gradual price increases.
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2008 – Initially, there was a slowdown, but it rebounded quickly with a short-term dip followed by a rise.
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2006 – A 5% increase during a period of moderate market growth.
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2004 – Prices climbed 6% in a stable economic environment.
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2000 – A strong growth phase brought an 8% price increase.
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1997 – Another robust year with a 7% boost in home values.
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1993 – The market surged with a 9% increase following the election.
What’s the takeaway?
Over the past 32 years, the housing market in Ontario has consistently shown resilience. Every single election period has been followed by a pause in activity, but that pause rarely lasts long. And except for periods of aggressive interest rate hikes (like we saw post-2021), the trend has been one of price growth and increased sales.
So what now?
While we can’t predict the future with certainty, past trends give us something valuable: perspective. With many experts forecasting a potential rate hold or cut later this year, and buyer confidence slowly returning, I’m optimistic.
We may be on the verge of another upswing—starting with stronger sales volume and followed by gradual price appreciation.
For more historical data on the housing market in Ontario see the CREA website here: CREA STATS
If you’re thinking of buying, selling, or just staying informed about the housing market in Ontario, now’s a great time to keep your eyes open. Trends don’t repeat exactly—but they often rhyme.
Want personalized insight into how your neighbourhood is performing? Let’s chat.
